Forecast scoreboard.
Every forecast we publish is recorded immutably at publication time and later scored against what actually happened. These are the results, including the ones that are unflattering, published openly.
RESULTS BY MODEL, HORIZON AND REGIME
Scored forecasts.
| Model | Horizon | Regime | Matured | Direction correct | Benchmark correct | Brier score | Range coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| direction-baseline-1.0.0 | 1h | unclassified | 9272 | 56.8% | 81.1% | 0.245 | 80.0% |
| direction-baseline-1.0.0 | 24h | unclassified | 8421 | 39.5% | 38.9% | 0.272 | 81.8% |
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 1h | neutral | 160 | 56.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 24h | neutral | 127 | 39.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 24h | risk-off | 2 | Withheld: 2 of 8 matured forecasts required | |||
| direction-baseline-1.0.0 | 7d | unclassified | 7259 | 50.0% | 48.1% | 0.268 | 88.0% |
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 1h | risk-off | 11 | 27.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 7d | risk-off | 11 | 45.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 7d | neutral | 110 | 48.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| macro-liquidity-weekly-1.0.0 | 2026-10-05 | contracting | 1 | Withheld: 1 of 8 matured forecasts required | |||
| macro-liquidity-weekly-1.0.0 | 2026-09-21 | contracting | 1 | Withheld: 1 of 8 matured forecasts required | |||
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 7d | risk-on | 98 | 22.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 1h | risk-on | 131 | 60.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| macro-liquidity-weekly-1.0.0 | 2026-09-14 | contracting | 1 | Withheld: 1 of 8 matured forecasts required | |||
| macro-liquidity-weekly-1.0.0 | 2026-09-07 | recovering | 1 | Withheld: 1 of 8 matured forecasts required | |||
| crypto-liquidity-transmission-beta-1 | 24h | risk-on | 127 | 39.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| macro-liquidity-weekly-1.0.0 | 2026-08-31 | expanding | 1 | Withheld: 1 of 8 matured forecasts required | |||
| macro-liquidity-weekly-1.0.0 | 2026-08-24 | recovering | 1 | Withheld: 1 of 8 matured forecasts required | |||
| macro-liquidity-weekly-1.0.0 | 2026-08-17 | contracting | 1 | Withheld: 1 of 8 matured forecasts required | |||
At least 8 matured forecasts per model, horizon and regime are required before performance claims are permitted. Aggregates below this threshold report sampleSize and minimumSampleMet only -- metrics is withheld, not estimated.
HOW TO READ THIS
What the numbers do and do not show.
- Direction correct is the share of scored forecasts whose predicted direction matched the outcome. Benchmark correct is the same measure for the naive benchmark. A direction score only means something against its benchmark, and a correct direction does not establish skill.
- Brier score measures probability accuracy; lower is better, and always forecasting 50% scores 0.25.
- Range coverage is how often the outcome landed inside the forecast's stated range.
- A figure appears only once a model, horizon and regime has at least 8 matured forecasts. Below that the row is withheld rather than shown with a misleading number.
- Forecasts are frozen at publication; later data revisions cannot rewrite the original record. Duplicate weekly forecasts are not counted twice.
Research evaluation only. Scores describe immutable historical forecasts and do not predict future performance or represent investment advice.
MACHINE-READABLE
The same data is available as JSON at /v1/forecast-verification-performance and /v1/forecast-verification-history. Forecast-level audit records, with payload hashes, are available through the paid forecast-verification service.
Page generated 2026-10-17T00:13:19.836Z.